2010-13 was the period in which my Cardiff Metro Vision first appeared in the public domain and importantly when I built a broad network of supporting companies, organisations and individuals to help make the case for change. I have set out some recollections of my time and work, from 2010 through to my joining Welsh Government in late 2013.
Looking back in 2024, at the implementation work in progress on the Core Valley Lines, it is perhaps easy to overlook and forget the fundamental importance of the activities undertaken in the period 2010-2015. There would be no Metro today without the committed efforts of a large group of people and the support of a wide range of stakeholders and importantly the development of a vision and purpose for the Metro which provided the necessary foundation for all that followed.
In this chapter I cover:
- 4.1 Where I had come from
- 4.2 The seed of an idea and the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA)
- 4.3 The Cardiff Business Partnership
- 4.4 A Metro for Wales’s Capital City Region and launch event
- 4.5 What about Welsh Government and the Region?
- 4.6 What were UK Government doing?
- 4.7 Growing frustrations through into 2012
- 4.8 The Metro Consortium
- 4.9 The Metro Impact Study (2013)
- 4.10 Addressing challenges, scepticism and concerns
- References
4.1 Where I had come from
For me the catalyst to get involved in Metro came in part from my departure from the biotechnology company I had founded in 2003, “Q Chip Ltd” (along with David Barrow and Jo Daniels) which is now part of a company called Biodexa pharmaceuticals. I am proud that there are bunch of people still working in biotech in Cardiff and other places who wouldn’t be, if we hadn’t started that business in 2003. That story is for another time (another book perhaps?), but I was kind of shoved out by the investors in 2009 who wanted to focus on pharmaceutical products whereas I was keener on diagnostic applications of our technology. It happens a lot, early-stage companies are often both a joy and a nightmare for those in the middle.
However, I learnt a lot from that experience, which helped me over the next few years. One key lesson was that you can’t always rely on “playing with a straight bat” or “just trust the data”. Probably unconsciously ( at least initially) I called up my memories of studying Machiavelli’s[1] “The Prince” and Pirsig’s[2] “Zen and The Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” and recognised that a more flexible and pragmatic approach was needed for Metro, one that addressed the classical nuts and bolts economic realities as well as offering a romantic vision of what is possible. I was also clear that we needed a Kuhnian[3] paradigm shift in our public transport systems in the Cardiff region.
I had spent many years in an earlier professional life in London working in Information Technology (IT) and in Management Consultancy for the PA Consulting Group (actually still amongst the most challenging and enjoyable five years of my professional career – that experience also gave me the confidence to actually start a biotech company in 2003). So, in 2010, setting up two-person consulting business, “M&G Barry Consulting”, was entirely appropriate. I just needed some work. As it turns out much of my Metro effort over the following two years was self-funded, with third party support in the margins.
4.2 The seed of an idea and the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA)
In January 2010 I attended an event hosted by the IWA on investment in economic infrastructure. I made a few pointy comments about the lack of such in Wales (primarily on the subject of airports and transport) to one of the speakers, Mervyn Davies, Lord Abersoch. As the event finished John Osmond approached me and as typical for John, asked me whether I could turn my questions and comments into an article for the IWA.
That was the start, and over the next 10 months a few pages become 15,000 words and what was eventually published in early 2011 as “A Metro for Wales Capital City Region – Connecting Cardiff Newport and The Valleys”[4]. For me it is instructive to recall those I first asked to comment on the initial paper; they were Ian Courtney (Director, Charity Bank), David Melding MS, Prof Brian Morgan (Cardiff Metropolitan University), Paul Orders (Director, Cardiff Council), Sion Barry (Business Editor Western Mail) and Robert Chapman (Director, local property company).
Figure 35 My email inviting comment on my first draft Metro article in March 2010
In 2022, Prof Stuart Cole managed to lay his hands on an email I had sent to the recently appointed CEO of Cardiff Council, Jon House, on the subject of Metro in the May of 2010 Figure 36. Whilst I had by then processed some of the initial review comments, I was still thinking in terms of the brief article for the IWA’s Quarterly, “Agenda” that Jon Osmond had requested, and not the report it developed into by late 2010.
Interesting to see the role of the then Great Western Partnership referenced in my email and my work in encouraging its establishment to help make the case for new High-Speed Rail (HSR) and ultimately the electrification of the Great Western Mainline (GWML) and South Wales Mainline (SWML). I was already at that time following the work of UK Government re HSR, and NR who were leading the formal work, as well as Jim Steer and Julie Mills who established Greengauge 21[5] to make the broader strategic case.
Figure 36 Metro Introductory email issued by M Barry in 2010 to CCC CEO Jon House
It was also in the summer of 2010 that I engaged with Welsh Government and met James Price (again), Jeff Collins and Tim James. During that period, I shared an early draft of my Metro paper and issued a similar email to Welsh ministers as I had with Jon House above. This was the reply I (or Mr Berry) received Figure 37.
Figure 37 Letter from WG to Mark Barry re “Metro Paper” June 2010
I had also been making known my views of the developing High-Speed Rail (HSR) debate in the UK and sharing the work of Greengauge as I was conscious that no-one in Wales was really talking about it. Even with the decision by the 2009 Labour Government to electrify the GWML to Swansea[6] (later cancelled by Phil Hammond and the new Conservative Government in 2011[7]), for me the GWML was a poor relation of the UK main line network given the relatively poor journey times and capability vs the WCML and certainly those offered by HSR.
After some further discussion with Welsh Government on this matter, I ended up working briefly with Halcrow (Nicky Forsdike, David Crockett and Liz Chandley), Prof Stuart Cole and Tim James to explore the options for HSR on the GWML corridor. That was my foot in the door with WG. In fact, it was Tim James who actually suggested a branding exercise for the Valley Lines to call them a Metro; this perhaps, even subliminally, influenced my thinking and expanded my ambition for the transport article I was drafting for the IWA.
Stuart Cole, who I was now working with vis a vis the HSR study, also helped arrange some Metro discussion with the rail industry, and specifically Network Rail in Cardiff. Stuart joined Jon Osmond and I at a meeting in October 2010 with NRs Mike Gallop, and their PR lead in Cardiff, Dylan Bowen. We broached my nascent report, and the event planned in 2011, that Mike would ultimately join as one of our key industry speakers.
I did all this whilst still focused on establishing and trying to secure funding for another biotech company, Reagent Delivery Systems (Jeremy Jones and Berwyn Clarke will probably recall my distractibility) and being a mentor to Welsh Government’s new head of Life Science, Ifan Evans. So, I had a lot on. I was also lucky enough to be the brother of Sion Barry, Business Editor of the Western Mail, who helped connect me with many of the key business and political figures in southeast Wales I didn’t know, having spent most of my working life in London and in the management consultancy and biotech industries.
This included Prof Brian Morgan[8] (who I invited to review my first transport article draft in March), who was developing ideas re city regions and facilitated my more formal engagement with the nascent Great Western Partnership and to add some of the developing content from my report. I also engaged with the Southeast Wales Economic Forum (SEWEF) chaired by Elizabeth Haywood[9] who broadened further our supporting group of stakeholders.
So throughout most of 2010, I was engaging more in the world of economic development and transport, writing what became “A Metro for Wales’ Capital City Region”, and in so doing meeting and discussing such with key stakeholders in the region. These were businesspeople, academics, politicians – who all helped shape the final form of the 2011 report.
I also think my network benefitted from the amplification impact of those friends and associates I met every few Thursday evenings in the City Arms in Cardiff City centre. A few meetings and discussions also took place over breakfast at the sadly missed Deli Rouge in Roath.
4.3 The Cardiff Business Partnership
Aside from the IWA, a key section in the Metro story has to reflect the fundamental role of the Cardiff Business Partnership (CBP). My brother Sion was instrumental in making the initial introduction to Roy Thomas[10]. Roy’s role was a key link in the Metro story; following our initial discussion over coffee at the Hilton on Kingsway, he invited me to present to an early Board meeting of the CBP at the office of Media Wales in September 2010 (some example slides Figure 38 Figure 39 Figure 40). Key members of the CBP, some of whom were sat around the table that day, were David Stevens[11] (Founder and then COO of Admiral Insurance), Steve Howell & Bruce Morris (Freshwater), Adrian Clark (Legal and General), Alan Edmunds (Western Mail Editor), Huw Davies (CEO Boomerang), and others. That Board’s endorsement of the Metro concept and their support of me in finessing the report, built momentum for the Metro concept. David Stevens and Admiral in particular provided advice, support and credibility to the Metro narrative throughout the next few years.
Following my engagement with the CBP, toward the end of 2010, I was invited to present Metro at an event organised by Cardiff & Co (Richard Thomas CEO) called the “Cardiff Debate” Figure 41. The Cardiff Metro concept was again well received and secured more vocal support from other groups and individuals.
Figure 38 Excerpt from my first Metro presentation to CBP in Sep 2010 #1
Figure 39 Excerpt from my first Metro presentation to CBP in Sep 2010 #2
Figure 40 Excerpt from my first Metro presentation to CBP in Sep 2010 #3
Figure 41 One of my first Cardiff Metro maps presented at Cardiff &Co event Dec 2010
That presentation also led to a very small piece of work for Cardiff Council (working with Neil Hanratty, Paul Orders and Paul Carter) to begin to explore the wider economic development and regeneration benefits of investing in/around Cardiff Central Station (amongst other things). This was a theme I explored further in the 2011 report.
My relationship with the IWA and in particular Geraint Talfan Davies and John Osmond, who actually edited the “Metro for Wales Capital City Region” report, as well my appearing at numerous events and writing several articles, helped expand my network, further communicate the Metro narrative and build support.
These were the essential foundations for the Metro story which were augmented by the many more people and organisations I sought out to provide input and challenge[12] to my work, and who ultimately endorsed it.
4.4 A Metro for Wales’s Capital City Region and launch event
From November 2010 to January 2011 my report[13] was revised, edited , designed and printed. It was eventually launched at an Institute of Welsh Affairs conference at City Hall in Cardiff organised by Freshwater, in February 2011[14]. The event was chaired by Mike Katz and secured attendance from a large network of supporting individuals and organisations. This included the rail industry; I managed to bring together people like Terry Morgan (the then Chair of Crossrail), Jim Steer (SDG) and key representatives from Network Rail (NR) and the Train Operating Companies (ToCs) including Mike Gallop, Mike Bagshaw and Mark Hopwood. In fact, there was a coming together of all the main business and industry groups around the idea of the Cardiff Capital Region Metro.
It also important to emphasise that the report was business led; it was not a formal transport planning document and did not come from a local authority, Welsh Government or the Civil Service. It was from the Cardiff business community and focussed on economic issues and the role of transport and connectivity to enhance the economy of Cardiff and southeast Wales. It also posited the need for bigger city region thinking on matters like transport and economic development.
The input and support of people like Prof Robert Huggins (re his respected Competitiveness Index), economist Prof Brian Morgan, David Stevens founder of Admiral Insurance, Graham Morgan of the South Wales Chambers of Commerce, Alex Smart of developer JR Smart, Ian Courtney of the Charity Bank amongst others, as well as my brother Sion as Business Editor of the Western Mail, was fundamental.
To underpin its transport and economic credibility, the report also drew at that time from the work and ideas of people and organisations like Richard Florida[15], The Work Foundation[16], Centre for Cities[17], The Passenger Transport Executive Group[18] and the Eddington Transport Study[19]. I also set out some of the UK rail funding inequity in relation to Wales and the non-devolved status of rail and perhaps, despite the reopening of the Vale of Glamorgan and Ebbw Valley Lines to passenger services, the more limited ambition Welsh Government had displayed toward public transport since devolution.
Figure 42 M Barry, IWA & CBP, 2011, “A Metro for Wales Capital City Region
Figure 43 A Metro for Wales Capital City Region – Summary and Reviewers
Figure 44 Agenda for 2011 IWA Event to launch Metro Report
When the report was launched, we also secured a lot of media coverage including BBC Wales (I gave my first TV interview to a younger Nick Servini[20]) and The Western Mail. Its profile also resulted in my being asked to present at other events and conferences. This included another IWA event in November 2011 focussed on City Regions where I co-hosted a session on transport and a “green city region” with Lee Waters[21]. The ex-mayor of Vancouver also spoke at that event on the subject of municipal agreement and how you secure it. His insight was that it is always better to focus effort on where you agree, as you will run out of money before you run out of agreement.
The Cardiff Business Partnership also contributed to a SEWTA Consultation Figure 222 and formally met them (Mark Youngman, Martin Buckle and others) to present the Metro vision later in 2011 and to secure their support. CBP similarly followed up with SEWEF, and groups like Cardiff Civic Society (Roger Tanner and David & Jeanne-Hélène Eggleton will recall many meetings then and since on the subject of the NW Corridor Metro extension).
Perhaps even more important, through contacts like Roy Thomas, I was introduced to active London Welsh notables like Robert John[22] who offered me guidance and support of my efforts; as well the earlier introduction to Terry Morgan of HS2 (who was a key speaker at the March 2011 Metro event). Robert’s insight and experience of the relationship between development, regeneration and transport investment (referencing his experience of Canary Wharf, The Jubilee Line and Crossrail) were hugely valuable and influenced all my future work.
Robert kindly invited me to speak at a panel of the Wales in London (as he was Chair at that time) later in 2011. On that panel were two other Welsh notables, Elizabeth Haywood[23] and Tim Williams[24]. I still follow Tim’s work with great interest today; I think our politics differ in some areas, but his knowledge and intellectual capacity have always enlightened my thinking as does his impressive track record from Wales to Sydney via Manchester and East London. Like Stuart Cole, people like Robert, Elizabeth and Tim provided insight, knowledge and advice that I was able to use in my work.
I am convinced that without the widespread engagement and resulting broad stakeholder support built up during 2010/11/12, and the economic ambition set out in my 2011 Metro report, there would be no South Wales Metro happening now.
4.5 What about Welsh Government and the Region?
Around the time of the publication of the report and the event itself, Welsh Government started to take perhaps more notice of the Metro. Not least perhaps, because the Cardiff Business Partnership had started to grab the “narrative”. This led to some productive and ongoing discissions with people like James Price, Jeff Collins and Tim James. In fact, all three I felt were keen to support the developing vision and Jeff (who given his earlier private sector experience could not be described as a typical civil servant) invited me into WG for a few days to try and evangelise the Metro. On the inside I worked with Jason Thomas who helped set up a number of sessions with civil servants to try spread the word (In 2020 Jason would pick up my Welsh Parador concept[25] for the Wales Tourism Strategy).
Following some discussions I also ended up meeting with Mark Drakeford and some of the Labour group at Craft in the Bay. I was joined at that session by a David Jones[26] who was making the case for start-up support for technology companies, something I was very familiar with.
Mark was leading a group who were preparing the Labour party manifesto for the 2011 Senedd election; subsequently Mark included commitment to the Metro in that manifesto. A little mention must also go to Lee Waters who remined me recently that he was also at that meeting with Mark Drakeford and was a little lukewarm, as he put it, about the Metro concept.
A little while later, I met Lee again at a Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) meeting (organised by Tim Peppin), where I again presented the Metro concept. Lee as I recall arrived late having just cycled up from the Sustrans office where he worked. At that time this cycling behaviour raised some eyebrows, but clearly exemplified Lee’s direction of travel.
Following such meetings and presentations, and a more formal campaign of political briefings led by the CBP, later in 2011 a number of formal political statements followed. For example, The First Minister stated in Plenary on 4th October, 2011…
“… we would be in favour of a South Wales Metro system in principle. There is a significant cost that is attached to that; nevertheless, it is a system of transport that would benefit not just the city of Cardiff, but the much wider area. “…It is important, where we have a city such as Cardiff, and a situation where many thousands of people commute into it every day from every direction, that the transport system is as swift and modern as possible to enable commuting to take place”
A cross-party motion secured unanimous support for the Metro concept in December 2011 which led to the establishment of a cross-party rail working group in February 2012. The Metro concept was also included in the Ministerial statement accompanying the revised National Transport Plan published in December and in March 2012, SEWTA formally adopted the Metro concept.
So, by late 2011 and into 2012, to add to wider civic society support, there was now Welsh Government and Senedd cross-party support for the Metro concept, and an acknowledgement in Cardiff Bay from all parties of the degree of underfunding by UK Government. A situation highlighted by an Assembly Committee in 2010[27], who concluded their review of future rail infrastructure in Wales by saying:
“This inquiry has left us with the distinct impression that Wales is not getting its fair share of investment in rail infrastructure, or getting it fast enough: programmes to electrify track, to improve stations and to upgrade rolling stock seem destined to reach Wales well behind other parts of the UK.”
“In light of forecasts that demand for rail services in Wales will grow significantly over the next 20 years, we trust that the recommendations contained in this report will help secure better services and infrastructure for more rail passengers – improved journey times and connections, better safety and comfort, and greater accessibility and affordability. At the same time, we hope to achieve economic and environmental benefits from the transfer of more freight from road to rail, and that proper planning will avoid the potential conflicts of interest between passenger and freight traffic”.
“Our eye is therefore on long-term strategy. The Welsh Government too needs to develop a clear vision for the rail network and acquire the necessary powers and funding that can be used to benefit Wales economically, socially and environmentally”.
In my naivety I thought we were on the way – this was to become a recurring theme.
4.6 What were UK Government doing?
This all has to be looked at in the context of UK Government policy re rail investment; and especially the electrification of the GWML/SWML which had originally been announced by the then Labour Government at Westminster in 2009. Then, after the pause of the programme in 2010, GWML electrification to Cardiff was approved by Phil Hammond, the Conservative UK Government’s Secretary of State for Transport, on 1st March 2011[28]. Whether my report, CBP and wider lobbying (including a meeting at Westminster organised by then MP Sian James) or the event earlier in February had any influence on the scope of this announcement I don’t know; perhaps others could comment.
So, the further commitment confirmed by UK Government at the same time, to work with WG to develop a business case for the electrification of the Valley Lines could be pure coincidence. What wasn’t so welcome was the view of the DfT at that time, that there was no case to electrify the GWML to Swansea. I remember the live interview I gave to Jamie Owen along with late Cheryl Gillan live from Swansea Station on BBC Wales Today on March 1st 2011, where I confidently predicted that GWML wires would eventually reach Swansea (Oh well.)
It was also in 2011 that I also gave my first evidence to the Westminster Transport Committee’s review of High-Speed rail[29], as my Metro report also made the case for the full electrification of the SWML and GWML. I appeared on Radio Wales in Cardiff the day of the session in September 2011 (with Betsan Powys), to try and explain what a poor deal Wales was getting, and I think the first time that the issues re: HS2 and Barnett were “aired” so publicly in Wales. After a train cancellation and rush across to Westminster I arrived at the committee with a minute to spare. I sat alongside Jim Steer of Steer Davies Gleave (SDG) and Greengauge, Steve Costello of Heathrow Hub and Scotland’s Transport Minister, Keith Brown, who was supported by a throng of his officials to support Scotland’s position on HSR. I noted that I was the only person or organisation from Wales to actually give evidence and attend the committee (this is also part of our problem). As best as I can recall, there weren’t any Welsh MPs on that Transport Committee.
At that session I set out the little known negative economic impacts of HS2 on Wales and the inequity in the funding ecosystem, for rail in Wales, which by 2022/23 was a regular news and social media item. Jim Steer noted that I was probably the only person who had read through the details of the KPMG HS2 economic impact analysis which I referred to at the session when challenged by Conservative MP Steve Baker. As I recall, he pointedly said, “where do you get those figures from?”…I replied “in here” waving the Greengauge KPMG report at him.
It was in 2011 when I also came across the Bow Group’s very good paper called “The Right Track[30] by Tony Lodge “ and the “Heathrow hub” group lobbying for HS2 to go via Heathrow and become fully integrated with the GWML and HS1. Some proper joined up thinking often missing from UK transport planning.
I had also met David Jones MP the then under Secretary of State for Wales in July 2011 to raise the Welsh rail issues and the Barnett HS2 anomaly re: Wales. Whilst he did write to the DfT in support of the emerging electrification proposals in Wales, he was vehemently opposed to devolution of rail powers to Wales. He was also fairly dismissive of my claims re the impact of HS2 on Wales and questioned my credibility given he had received a different analysis from Stuart Cole. I recall I was both “new” and a bit of a lone voice in making the case for the negative economic impact of HS2 on Wales and especially the Barnett funding inequity given the non-devolved status of rail.
By July 2023, the penny had dropped for most Conservative MPs in north Wales; that being, after another ten years of pretty much zero enhancements, that the best chance of securing rail enhancement investment in north Wales would be to vest powers and funding with Welsh Government, with schemes like HS2, NPR, etc being defined by HMT as “England only”. I don’t think the 2023 announcement of electrification of the NWML (at some unspecified time in the future) changed this – although credit must go to the likes of James Davies exMP for pushing for this commitment. However, by June 2024, the commitment to NWML electrification appeared to have evaporated according to articles in the trade press[31] and seemingly confirmed by the new UK Labour Government in July 2024.
Throughout the remainder of 2011 and into 2012, in both a personal and Cardiff Business Partnership capacity, I maintained pressure on Westminster re: High Speed Rail, electrification and ambition for Wales, as these letters (See Appendices Various Cardiff Business Partnership correspondence 2010-201) demonstrate Figure 223 Figure 224 Figure 225 Figure 226. Whilst we did get electrification on the GWML to Cardiff (but not to Swansea), despite my evidence to the Westminster Transport Committee and letters and correspondence with Ministers, HS2 never went to Heathrow A missed opportunity in my view; as is the lack of a western rail link to Heathrow from the GWML.
4.7 Growing frustrations through into 2012
During that period, I represented the CBP on the Great Western Partnership (GWP), which was formed partly in response to my earlier lobbying. This nascent cross border advocacy group were instrumental in ensuring the electrification of the GWML was “put back” on the agenda. I supported those efforts with a number of articles in the trade press, including, ”A Greater Great Western Line” in June of 2011[32]. It’s with a slight feeling of déjà vu that I re-visited those proposals in 2022/23 with the Western Gateway (which is a re-incarnation of the GWP). In this more recent work, I dug up and presented to the Western Gateway Board meeting in late 2021, a slide I had used ten years earlier, also at Bristol City Hall at College Green Figure 109.
The next two years through into early 2013, however, became quiet frustrating. I met more people at SEWTA, engaged with WG and helped support the Valley Lines Electrification (VLE) Business case work through from July 2011 until early 2012 (and first worked with Arup and the likes of Dan Savile, Stuart Watkins and Stephen Bussell). However, we were not yet formally talking about the kind of Metro I wanted.
One conversation at that time with Jeff Collins of WG, sticks with me, and he saw the road ahead perhaps better than I did at that time. Whilst I was trying to make the case for the ambitious Metro with LR, HR, etc, Jeff knew the first challenge, given the non-devolved status of rail, was to secure funding from the DfT for something they would understand. So, he was very much focussed, and reflected in the remit Arup had from WG, on developing a business case for a traditional HR 25Kv electrification programme.
I took this approach in my lobbying of the DfT as this letter demonstrates Figure 45 Figure 46 ; it also contained an error, as in fact, as I later discovered, Crossrail was treated by HMT as an “England only scheme” (See The Barnett formula, Wales and Rail).
Figure 45 M Barry March 2012 Letter to DfT #1
Figure 46 M Barry Letter to DfT March 2012 #2
It was during and especially later in 2011, that things got even more challenging for me as a result of changes in WG which saw the Transport portfolio moved to local Government under the late Carl Sargeant following the Assembly Elections. This meant my main contact, James Price, went with Economic development and whilst Jeff Collins did lead the transport work for a while, that did not last. At about the same time Tim James left WG and headed for Network Rail. So, who should I talk to?
I did meet the new Transport Minister the late Carl Sergeant in the September of 2011, (the Minister was accompanied by one of the nicest and most knowledgeable civil servants working in rail, Dave Thomas) and also appeared at an event with him to talk Metro and Transport organised by Hugh James solicitors in the Autumn of that year. Carl restated his and WG commitment to the VLE business case work, but again not really the Metro, although he included reference to a long-term Metro in his statement accompanying the revised National Transport Plan in December 2011[33]
By the end of 2011, a whole new senior management team arrived in the WG Transport Department led by a Frances Duffy from Transport Scotland. For me, whilst losing my contacts James Price, and then Jeff Collins and Tim James, was a blow, it seemed to me at the time that Frances was a good appointment as she had experience of building up the rail capability in Scotland as well as overseeing the devolution of rail powers and funding – a key issue for us in Wales then as it is now.
However, by early 2012, it felt to me that the new WG Transport Team seemed little inclined to enthusiastically engage me or my network. Frustratingly the work I had been discussing with Dewi Rowlands at Welsh Government re making the case for rail investment in north Wales was also stymied by these changes.
Nonetheless, in early 2012, the electrification business case work commissioned by WG in July 2011, did produce two business cases: one for the Valley Lines and another for the SWML to Swansea. This work was “engineered” to a degree, to maximise the chances of funding. The VLE business case included all the Valley Lines (inc. Maesteg, VoG Line and Ebbw Valley) and the SWML from Cardiff to Bridgend. The SWML electrification business case was then focused on the SWML from Bridgend to Swansea (Assuming the valleys was electrified and so the SWML to Bridgend) . The Valley Lines had a total capital cost in 2002 prices of £295M and electrification from Bridgend to Swansea of £60M. Figure 47 Figure 48.
Figure 47 Excerpt from 2012 VLE Outline Business Case #2
Figure 48 Excerpt from 2012 SWML Electrification Outline Business Case
Accompanied by much public fanfare, in July 2012 The DfT Secretary of State, Justine Greening confirmed plans for electrification to Swansea and all the Valley Lines[34]. So, all was good in the world after the muted UK Government announcement in March 2011.
However, the business case, based on pretty much boiler plate industry standard 25Kv electrification and building on CASR[35], assumed cascaded stock with no major service frequency changes and certainly no Light Rail or new stations that a Metro would require – and at a cost that would eventually kill that form of the project given the marginal benefits.
The escalation of GWML electrification costs[36] for the line to Swansea would also result in that eventually being “cancelled” by Chris Grayling in July 2017[37], despite an apparent agreement to progress in 2014. It also seemed to me and as I reported to CBP early in 2012, that the valley line electrification programme would ultimately need some financial contribution from WG, despite rail not being a devolved responsibility. (See 5.5 What are we electrifying and who is paying?)
It was also during this period, in 2012 , that the then Minister Carl Seargent initiated the southeast Wales Integrated Transport Task Force with SEWTA. This work initially did not engage with me or my network, although I later had some involvement at the margins. I suspect there were and perhaps still are some in the wider southeast Wales local authority ecosystem as well as Welsh Government, who didn’t perhaps welcome my interventions in transport – a space they felt was theirs to shape without people like me getting involved. After all what did I know, getting people all excited over a crazy and completely undeliverable Metro project.
Worth restating that Daniel Burnham quote again:
Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men’s blood and probably themselves will not be realized’.
Over this period when transport was under the late Carl Sargeant, WG’s Economy Department was also running its City Region Task Force chaired by Elizabeth Haywood and included the experience and insight of notable people like Prof Kevin Morgan. However, this Task and Finish Group, which reported in July 2012[38], was remitted by the Minister for Economy, Edwina Hart, it seemed to me there was a tension in WG, and I was still outside of the WG Transport and SEWTA “room”. In fact, in April 2012, I emailed Edwina Hart making the case for the Metro and that it should be viewed as an economic development project (See Mark Barry email to WG Minister Edwina Hart April 2012).
Despite that, a number of Welsh Government Ministers made relevant statements in support of Metro. For example, The Minister with responsibility for Transport, Carl Sargeant, stated in Plenary on 17th July 2012,
“I believe that electrification is the starting point for the opportunity to build on the Metro concept as a fully integrated service for South Wales, with ‘Metro’ being a theme as opposed to a system. The Metro could be linked with bus and light rail services, along with the electrification and other opportunities. It is a visionary transport system for the future that I hope to be able to deliver on.”
During 2012, I also did a little work for Newport Unlimited to help bolster the strategic case for enhancement to the Ebbw Valley line and a direct service to Newport to complement the VLE work. Although never published, I also prepared a “draft” report for Cardiff Council[39] setting out options for a “rapid transit” network for the City. This report thematically formed part of the foundation for the Metro Impact Study in 2013.
4.8 The Metro Consortium
So, later in 2012, to maintain momentum, I helped establish the “Metro Consortium” which aimed to keep our bigger Metro ambitions in the public eye. We expanded our network beyond the Cardiff Business Partnership to include a broader business and stakeholder community. I recall a well-attended meeting at the offices of JR Smart on Park Place to drum up support. I also started to prepare another report and event which would take place early in 2013. This process was actually initiated during a conversation with Jon Fox, then of Capita, an organisation (alongside The Urbanists) who played a key role in the next phase of Metro development.
I also worked with BBC Wales later in 2012 (Gareth Jones will remember the early morning filming session at St Mellons, Pontypridd and Fairwater.) on a “Week In Week Out” programme devoted to the Metro that was to be broadcast early in 2013.
The role and support of Metro Consortium members which aside from the Cardiff Business Partnership (chaired in 2013 by Wales’s new FM in 2024, Eluned Morgan, replacing Adrian Clarke), now included Capita Symonds (Alun Parfit, Jon Fox and Alan Davies) who actually helped fund some of this work, the Urbanists (Martin Sullivan, James Brown and Liam Hopkins), Jones Lang LaSalle (Chris Sutton – who was also Chair of the Cardiff Central Enterprise Zone), the IWA (John Osmond and Geraint Talfan Davies), and Cardiff Business School (Calvin Jones), was again fundamental. I also have to doff my cap to Nigel Roberts (and now Andrew Roberts) of Paramount and Cardiff Parkway who has been pursuing his ambitions for a station and transit connected business park at St Mellons longer than I have been advocating the Metro.
Figure 49 2013 Metro Consortium Members
This core group were ably supported by a wide network of interested stakeholders[40] (many of whom contributed to the 2011 report) including David Stevens of Admiral, who were all in support of Metro. I also kept in touch with people in the rail industry – Mike Bagshaw, Mark Langman, Claire Falkiner, Ian Bullock and others, to retain the level of ambition that would be required to secure funding and political commitment for the Metro.
In parallel, I also wrote and published more articles to keep the Metro profile high. Some I arranged and co-authored with politicians like Vaughan Gething, Owen Smith, Mick Antoniw. For example, the nascent Cardiff Crossrail idea (which I first developed in 2012/13 and set out in my Metro Consortium Metro Report in March 2013) was first aired publicly in a 2012[41] article I penned with Vaughan Gething for the IWA and later published in the Western Mail and the rail trade press. This followed an earlier conversation with the then Chairman of Crossrail, Terry Morgan (who was speaking at a Cardiff business Club event as I recall), who supported my Cardiff Crossrail idea. The concept of connecting the Rhymney Line with the Taff lines via a link through Trelewis was also aired in an article I wrote with Mick Antoniw[42] – this is something that the region needs to explore given the application of tram-trains for the Metro.
During 2012, I continued to reach out to speak and present at a range of events and to different organisations. For example: The ASLEF Council, The Cardiff Property Forum, Transport Futures, Welsh Affairs Select Committee, Capital Region Tourism, Cardiff Central Enterprise Board, British Gas, Sustrans and The Transport Research Laboratory (Martin Lamb) amongst others.
These efforts culminated in the publication of a second report in March 2013,” A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect “[43] Figure 50 and an event organised by the IWA and hosted by Cardiff Business School (thanks Prof Calvin Jones)[44]
Like in 2011, the event attracted some notable speakers and panellists including Owen Smith MP (then Shadow Sec State for Wales), Jonathan Bray, Chris Sutton, Vaughan Gething MS, and Byron Davies MS.
At the same time as the March 2013 conference, BBC Wales broadcast the Week In Week Out programme on the Metro. This perhaps more than many of my earlier efforts, helped communicate the concept of the Metro project to many more people across south Wales. Although as I recall, the rather divisive questions put to people in the bar at Pontypridd rugby club helped perpetuate the rather unhelpful Cardiff V valleys narrative.
Despite that, by March 2013 Metro did have a high profile.
Figure 50 Mark Barry & Metro Consortium, 2013, “A Cardiff City Region Metro, 2013
The final Rail Strategy from SEWTA[45] was also published in March 2013, and in June, Welsh Government’s southeast East Wales Integrated Transport Task force report[46] commissioned by Carl Sargeant, was published by Edwina Hart. It was good to see that SEWTA, who formally acknowledged the Metro in March 2012[47], calling it “SEWTA Metro Plus”, and the Task Force, were now both in support of something more ambitious than a simple electrification project. I am not sure that would have been the case without my earlier efforts and advocacy. I recall, at the TV coverage of SEWTA’s decision in 2012 decision to support Metro, its lead Councillor Andrew Morgan suggested I should be interviewed. I declined as I has already had quite a bit of media exposure and thought it important for other bodies and people not directly associated with me and my campaign, to support the Metro case.
Fortuitously for me at least in March 2013, First Minister Carwyn Jones made some changes to his cabinet. As part of that process, transport was moved back with economy under the leadership of Edwina Hart[48] as Minister for the Economy, Science and Transport.
I do not have any visibility of the Cabinet discussion that led to this change, but I think this decision was a fundamental part of the Metro journey. I was in a meeting at the time of the announcement down the bay with members of Carl Sargeant’s task force and some local authority members and officials. It was pretty clear, not everyone liked what happened – but I think it was right, and so Edwina Hart was given the space to play a pivotal role in the next stage of the Metro Project.
That was a fundamentally positive move and very soon after, Chris Sutton (who was a lead member of the Metro Consortium) and I were invited to meet the Minister for Economy and now Transport, Edwina Hart. That was one of the most unusual meetings of my entire career.
On 12th April 2013, Chris Sutton and I headed to Ty Hywel and were ushered into a big room with a big table. Instead of meeting, as we expected, just the Minster Edwina Hart, we were being faced with the entire senior team of the WG Transport Department, who now had a new Minister. I am paraphrasing, but as best as I can recall, the Minister said,
“Mark, could you explain what we are doing wrong in transport and what we need to do better”.
Typical of the directness for which Edwina was famed.
Talk about thinking on your feet. After exchanging a few nervous glances at Chris and being as diplomatic as possible in reference to the work of WG in southeast Wales, I acknowledged the large degree of good quality work via WG and SEWTA, etc but that we had a strategic gap, a need to have a vision that linked transport with regional economic development and regeneration and evidence to substantiate a more ambitious programme. The Minister asked whether everyone agreed; unsurprisingly they all did, as the responses of “Yes Minister” were offered from around the table. Very quickly everyone was ushered out of the room. Chris Sutton and I were left with The Minister and James Price who now had transport back in his portfolio. That was where and when we started to scope the Metro Impact Study which we worked closely with, but arm’s length from, WG to develop[49].
4.9 The Metro Impact Study (2013)
I led (in my M&G Barry Consulting persona), with WG and Ministerial support, the preparation and publication later in 2013 of the Metro Impact Study[50] for the Minister for Economy Science and Transport, Edwina Hart.
This work and the final report would bolster the vision and provide the “purpose” for the Metro, without which you have little prospect of securing support and funding.
The programme I led included input from many stakeholders, formal transport appraisal and brought together a multi-disciplinary team procured by WG: Capita (special mention here to David McCallum who now has a lead role at TfW – as well as Alison Walker and Catriona Lloyd), Steer Davies Gleave, JLL (Chris Sutton), The Urbanists (James Brown and Liam Hopkins), etc.
The CBP and Metro Consortium provided their full support as did the other business and business group we engaged (so IOD, CBI, etc). As part of the ongoing engagement, I also presented to the recently formed Cardiff Central Enterprise Zone board chaired by John Antoniazzi. Again, their support was another necessary endorsement of the Metro concept. It was via this board that I also met Chris Nott (who helped with me run the 2018 Metro and Me event). We also formally engaged Network Rail and Arriva Trains Wales at the time via people like Mark Langman, Ian Bullock Mike Bagshaw and Claire Falkiner.
We approached the Metro Impact Study strategically and attempted to align transport with land use, economic development and regeneration right across the wider Cardiff Capital Region. In today’s language it was at the level of Programme Strategic Outline Case.
We also tried to reflect all the earlier “Metro work”; so, my 2011 report, the 2013 Metro Consortium report, SEWTA’s final rail strategy, the 2013 southeast Wales Integrated Transport Task Force, Cardiff Councils City Region Report[51] and Elizabeth Haywood’s 2012 City Region Report[52]. This kind of undertaking was not an exact science – but I think we were successful in articulating a possible and deliverable future, with a very broad-brush assessment of typical benefits both quantitative and qualitative; and yes, this did include some agglomeration benefits[53] which some are keen to dismiss.
Figure 51 The Metro Consortium 2013 Metro Impact Study, led by Mark Barry
Figure 52 2013 Metro Impact Study – Project Team
In October 2013, the report to the Minister set out an ambitious programme of integrated Heavy Rail, Light Rail (including Tram-train), Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) of the order of £2Bn in capital investment, and a range of complementary regeneration and economic development interventions across the region. It’s also where we first set out the need for a comprehensive regional transport model to help Metro planning, and the need for the region to embrace major planning, land use and placemaking interventions with a greater focus on Transit Oriented Development (See Why we need Transit Oriented Development (TOD)). It was and still is clearly much more than a transport project and required multiple parties to engage, which continues to be a major challenge.
We presented a programme that at the larger regional macro scale, could
- Support the creation of 7,000 jobs
- Over 30 years contribute an additional £4Bn to the economy
- Deliver a one-off construction impact of £4Bn
- Enable 60% catchment increase to >1M people within 1.2km of Metro stations.
This analysis was consistent with one of the findings from the Eddington Report, commissioned by the UK Government in 2006[54], which was that
“there is clear evidence that a comprehensive and high-performing transport system is an important enabler of sustained economic prosperity”
“transport networks support the productivity and success of urban areas and their catchments, by getting people to work, supporting productive labour markets and allowing businesses within the area to reap the benefits of agglomeration.”
The priority transport interventions Figure 53 set out in the Metro Impact study included:
- A major upgrade of the Core Valley Lines, new stations, higher frequency services and the application of tram-train for some services (in essence this is the CVL transformation being delivered in 2024-26)
- An upgrade of the Ebbw Valley Line with direct services to Newport (by 2022 direct services has already been introduced to Newport and by 2023 an increase in capacity was also delivered including direct Ebbw Vale Newport services)
- The development of the NW Corridor project Figure 55 linking RCT via Plas Dwr, the City Line with the Bay line and Cardiff Bay (Phase 1 of the Cardiff Crossrail was approved early in 2023); this also included the first reference of the concept of a new LR station on Bute St Figure 54 which I wanted included (being built in 2023/4 at Butetown north about 200M north of Loudon Square). The full project to NW Cardiff and RCT is though still some way off
- Enhance the M4/Relief Line corridor Figure 57 between Cardiff and Severn Tunnel Junction with new stations, new rail/tram-train services and integrated bus/BRT (this work and analysis was essentially input to the 2020 South East Wales Transport Commission SEWTC[55] led by Lord Burns and which were reflected, almost in their entirety, in its recommendations – now a key part of TfW’s SWML Programme)
- Enhance mid-valley corridor between Pontypridd and Pontypool/Cwmbran (little progress on this corridor to date)
To complement these primary transport interventions, the team set out a wide range of economic development and regeneration interventions that could be enabled and/or enhanced as a result of the Metro.
In fact, we set out in the Executive summary the three key components of the Metro: transformation, regeneration and connection. At its heart were the economic benefits based on improved connectivity via PT across the region aligned with a range of station and transit focused regeneration intervention. This provided the foundation for all the Metro work, development and implementation that followed and many of that report’s recommendations flowed through into the work of WG and TfW over the next few years.
Worth noting, that in preparing the Metro Impact Study and part of the economic development and regeneration sub reports (prepared by Chris Sutton of JLL and James Brown and Liam Hopkins of The Urbanist), we engaged IndyCube (Mark Hooper and later Ceri Davies) and properly noted the potential for more flexible working in places connected to transport hubs across the region. This view and the work of Indycube would later be vindicated during and post Covid.
Figure 53 2013 Metro Impact Study – Strategic Priorities
Figure 54 2013 Metro Impact Study – Loudon Sq. (The Urbanists prepared this image for me)
Figure 55 2013 Metro Impact Study NW Corridor, City Line, Coryton Line & Bay Line Proposals
Figure 56 2013 Metro Impact Study – Cardiff Bay and “Crossrail”
Figure 57 2013 Metro Impact Study – M4/Relief Line Corridor Proposals
4.10 Addressing challenges, scepticism and concerns
I also engaged then and in the years that followed, with some who were a little sceptical and held out some criticism of the Metro project as something that could encourage, according to their analysis, the further agglomeration of activities and value in Cardiff to the detriment of communities in the valleys.
These were concerns voiced then and later, by the Bevan Foundation and its Director Victoria Winkler[56], and the likes of Dr Mark Lang, an associate at Cardiff University and then a researcher at Centre for Regeneration Excellence in Wales (CREW). Mark did submit a challenging critique to the wider Metro narrative in the 2018 Metro and Me publication[57] and in an earlier 2016 BBC Wales article[58]. Prof Calvin Jones also opined on the project in 2016 in a similar vein[59]. I offered some thoughts on the need to balance agglomeration and local foundational initiatives in a later article for the Bevan Foundation[60].
Whilst I acknowledge my original 2011 Metro Report was focussed (but not exclusively) on Cardiff, the Metro Impact Study really did set out a range of development and regeneration interventions right across southeast Wales linked to the Metro project and some very broad-brush estimates of wider economic benefits . Nonetheless, I do think their work has and continues to help spread a greater understanding of the role of the foundational economy and sustainable places, as presented in a book that Mark Lang contributed to in 2022[61], and something I have become far more sympathetic to and supportive of.
I still challenge the “ Metro will drag all people to Cardiff narrative” used by some, and that agglomeration is “all bad”. I am no economist, but argue that agglomeration is not a political ideology, it is a feature of increased activity density and connectivity and works at different scales and despite concerns (especially the potential to entrench inequality), there are economic benefits[62] that cannot or should not be dismissed lightly. It is also clear that population and activity densification makes public transport more useful to more people and more affordable to build and operate – something that is essential in our collective quest to reduce carbon emissions.
In fact, more recent work and research[63] is starting to demonstrate that the biggest negative extractive impact on communities and local economies results from decades of growth of “out of town” car based shed corporate retail and offices (See The Climate Emergency and car dependency). It seems to me, that it is this phenomenon that has had a much larger detrimental impact on the viability of many communities and high streets in the both the valleys and parts of Cardiff, than any claimed impact of relatively small numbers of people commuting into Cardiff city centre. See 14.5 The role of Cardiff.
I think in 2024, post Covid, with a Climate Emergency and challenging economic situation all our views have moved on a little. The reality is today the Metro is as much about trying to shift people out their cars to more sustainable transport for trips to/from/within Cardiff AND across the region. More important perhaps, the Metro presents an opportunity to enable a range of economic development and regeneration benefits, and especially more Transit Oriented Development across the region (See Why we need Transit Oriented Development).
It is this potential catalytic influence of the Metro where the most benefits lie and where the phrase “transformational” can be most aptly applied. However, the stark reality is that many other parties and agencies need to step up to the challenge; especially those involved in our planning, development and regeneration ecosystem. This is still a “gap” today, which risks the Metro just being a good transport project Vs a transformational regional economic project. As implied in the recommendations of the 2013 Impact Study, the need for a “Metro Development Corporation” is as relevant and pressing today as it was back in 2013. My informal briefing to the Leaders of the ten Local Authorities in 2022 made that point (See Appendices Mark Bary Briefing for CCR LA Leaders/CEOs June 2022).
Nonetheless, the 2013 Metro Impact Study, even with its imperfections, perhaps provided the more robust evidence base needed to progress with Metro. So, to some further press fanfare, it was launched in late 2013, a copy sent to every Senedd Member (MS) and a debate arranged in the Senedd on October 22, 2013. To help further, the Minister asked whether I would be able to lead further work for WG.
On temporary and part time basis in late 2013, I started what was a two- and half-year effort at WG to make the Metro a reality. In November 2013 I thought this was a no-brainer and a slam dunk given the Minister’s support.
How wrong I was. My naivety was exposed again.
References
[1] Niccolo Machiavelli, Antonio Blado d’Asola, 1532 “The Prince”
[2] Robert M Pirsig, William Morrow and Company, 1974, “Zen and The Art of Motorcycle Maintenance”
[3] Thomas S Kuhn, University of Chicago Press, 1962, “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”
[4] Mark Barry, IWA/Cardiff Business Partnership, 2011 “A Metro for Wales Capital City Region – Connecting Cardiff, Newport and the Valleys”
[5] Greengauge 21, Greengauge 21 – Shaping tomorrow’s railway
[6] BBC News, Lord Adonis, GWML electrification announcement. July 2009 BBC NEWS | UK | £1bn plan to electrify rail line
[7] BBC News, Hammond, GWML cancellation of electrification to Swansea in 2011 London-Cardiff rail electrification, but not to Swansea – BBC News
[8] Brian Morgan is Professor of Entrepreneurship at Cardiff Metropolitan University and has led or been part of multiple WG task forces and was Chief Economist to the Welsh Development Agency in the 1990s
[9] Elizabeth Haywood was Director of the CBI in Wales from 1994 to 2000 and led The City Region Task Force for Welsh Government in 2012
[10] Roy J. Thomas | LinkedIn was a senior official in the Welsh Development Agency in the 1990s and helped establish the Cardiff Business Partnership in 2010
[11] David Stevens was founder and COO (later to become CEO ) of Admiral Insurance. Set up in the mid-1990s it grew to become Wales largest listed company
[12] They included SEWTA ( Martin Buckle, Mark Youngman, John Duddridge) , Prof Brian Morgan (Cardiff Metropolitan), Mark Langman & Mike Gallop (Network Rail ), Ian Courtney, Lord Byron Davies (Ex MS and MP), Byron Davies (ex-CEO Cardiff Council) David Melding(ex-MS), Robert Chapman, Alex Smart, Prof Robert Huggins, Graham Morgan (South Wales Chambers of Commerce), Positif Politics and many others (I apologise for your omission). Over the next few years this network would grow to include people like Nigel and Andrew Roberts (re St Mellons Parkway) Craig Williams (MP), Jenny Rathbone (MS), Vaughan Gething (MS), Peter Fox (ex-Monmouthshire Council Leader and MS) , Kevin Morgan (Cardiff University) and many, many more.
[13] Mark Barry IWA/CBP, 2011, “A Metro for Wales Capital City Region – Connecting Cardiff, Newport and the Valleys” iwa-Metroreport.pdf
[14] IWA Conference, 10 February 2011, “End of the Line”
[15] Richard Florida, Basic Books, 2002 “The Rise of the Creative Classes”
[16] Alexandra Jones, Laura Williams, Neil Lee, David Coats, Marc Cowling; The Work Foundation, 2006 , “Ideopolis – Knowledge City Regions” Ideopolis – Knowledge City Regions;
Tom Cannon, Max Nathan, Andy Westwood; The Work Foundation, 2002, “Welcome to the Ideopolis”
[17] Centre for Cities, 2010, “Right Track” and “Beyond the Boundaries” Home | Centre for Cities
[18] Passenger Transport Executive Group -now known as The Urban Transport Group Urban Transport Group
[19] UK Government, DfT, 2007, Eddington Transport Study,
[20] BBC Wales, March 2011 BBC Wales Metro Article March 2011 with M Barry.mp4
[21] Lee Waters, Deputy Minister for Climate change WG from 2021, our paths have crossed on multiple occasion during the Metro story all the way back to his work with Sustrans in 2010/11/12
[22] Robert John from Llantrisant, Wales – Senior roles in finance and regeneration inc. Dep Chair of the Canary Wharf group in the 1990s, and key roles re both the Jubilee Line and Crossrail Robert John – The Honourable Society of Cymmrodorion The Honourable Society of Cymmrodorion
[23] See earlier
[24] See earlier
[25] Mark Barry 2019 Blog, Welsh Paradores and Sourdough Bread – Mark Barry (swalesMetroprof.blog)
[26] David Jones | LinkedIn has an entrepreneurial background in software, IT, Cybersecurity and public sector governance and is now Chair of the DVLA
[27] National Assembly for Wales, Enterprise and Learning Committee, 2010, “Future Rail Infrastructure in Wales” ELC – Future Rail Infrastructure in Wales
[28] UK Parliament, Hansard, Intercity Express and Rail Electrification – Tuesday 1 March 2011 – Hansard – UK Parliament
[29] House of Commons, Transport Committee, Report on High Speed Rail, 2011, HSR – 2012 Vol I _Report in shell_.docx (parliament.uk)
Mark Barry (for Cardiff Business Partnership) evidence to Transport Committee 2011, House of Commons – Transport Committee – Written Evidence (parliament.uk)
[30] The Bow Group, 2011, “The Right Track”
[31] Rail, June 2024, North Wales electrification hopes sidelined (railmagazine.com)
[32] Mark Barry, Rail Technology Magazine, June 2011, “A Greater Great Western Line”
[33] BBC Wales News, Dec 2011, ‘Strong east-west focus’ in Labour’s new transport plan – BBC News
[34] Hansard, 2012, Rail Investment – Monday 16 July 2012 – Hansard – UK Parliament
[35] NRs Cardiff Areas Signalling & Renewal Project (CASR) would eventually be value engineered to remove the need to enable 4tph on the City Line in Cardiff – a decision which constrains Metro development in 2024.
[36] House of Commons, Public Accounts Committee, 2017 “Modernising the Great Western Railway (parliament.uk)”
[37] DfT, Chris Grayling Statement re GWML, 2017 UK Parliament-Written statements, questions, answers
[38] WG Task and Finish Group, City Regions, July 2012
[39] Mark Barry, 2012, CCC, “Cardiff Council LDP High Level Assessment of Rapid Transit Options for the City to 2026 and Beyond”
[40] Key members/stakeholders whose support over 2012/3 was fundamental included: Huw Llewellyn (Admiral), Nick Griffith (Curzon Estates), Lynda Campbell, Sian Callaghan & Nick Speed (British Gas), Jon Fox (now of Wardell Armstrong), Nigel Roberts ( Paramount Office Interiors & Cardiff Parkway), Alex Smart (JR Smart), David Llewellyn (Valleys Regional Park), Jonathan Adams (Capita Architects), Leighton Jenkins (CBI Wales), Lee Waters (Sustrans – and more recently a Transport Minister), Victoria Winkler (Bevan Foundation) Roger Tanner, David Eggleton (Cardiff Civic Society) Robert Chapman, Henk Broekma, Gerry Holtham (Cadwyn Capital), Brian Morgan (Cardiff Metropolitan University), Victoria Winkler (Bevan Foundation) Matt Philips and Rob Jones (Knight Frank), Nick Bennet (Community Housing Cymru and later Ombudsman for Wales), David Swallow (Eversheds), Roger Thomas (Cooke and Arkwright), Janice Morphet (The Bartlett School of Planning), Chris Potts (Savills) – there were many more;
[41] Western Mail, Dec 2012 Cardiff ‘Crossrail’ proposals by business lobby – BBC News
[42] Western Mail, Oct 2012 Circle Line for the Valleys would boost regional economy – Wales Online
Western Mail, Oct 212 HOW TO GET THE ECONOMY MOVING – Wales Online
[43] Mark Barry, Metro Consortium, IWA 2013, A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Metro-Consortium-WEB-REDUCED.pdf (iwa.wales)
[44] Metro Consortium/IWA event, March 25, 2013 , “Making the Metro Happen?? Welsh Metro needed to drive regeneration – Institute of Welsh Affairs (iwa.wales)
[45] SEWTA, March 2013, Rail Strategy
[46] Southeast Wales Integrated Transport Task Force Report to the Minister for Economy, Science and Transport, Proposals for the delivery of the future public transport network 28th March 2013
[47] SEWTA formally support Metro on 16 March 2012 at a meeting in Bridgend Electrification ‘key’ for south Wales ‘Metro’ rail plan – BBC News
[48] Welsh Government March 2013 Written Statement – Cabinet Reshuffle (14 March 2013) | GOV.WALES
Wales On-line, June 2013 South East Wales Metro vision unveiled – Wales Online
[49] Welsh Government/SEWTA, 2013 Southeast Wales integrated transport task force (gov.wales)
[50] Mark Barry and The Metro Consortium, Welsh Government 2013, “A Cardiff Capital Region Metro: Impact Study” South Wales Metro: impact study | GOV.WALES
[51] Tym and Partners for Cardiff Council, 2011, “Strategic Planning for the Cardiff City Region”
[52] Elizabeth Haywood & City Region Task Force, Welsh Government, 2012, City Regions Final Report
dat20120305-e-english.pdf (senedd.wales)
[53] There are many definitions of economic agglomeration benefits. In this context it is the economic efficiencies and increased productivity that can result from the enhanced interconnectedness of people and workplaces enabled by the improvements in public transport that Metro would deliver. The Centre for Cities presented a good explanation The impact of agglomeration on the economy | Centre for Cities;
this literature review also provide a substantive explanation: Kathleen Bolter Jim Robey W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2020 Agglomeration Economies: A Literature Review (upjohn.org)
[54] Eddington Transport Study’, Dec 2006, commissioned by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Secretary of State for Transport.
[55] Southeast Wales Transport Commission, Welsh Government, 2020, Southeast Wales Transport Commission | GOV.WALES
[56] Victoria Winkler, Bevan Foundation, 2016, Making the Most of Metro – Bevan Foundation
[57] Mark Lang, Metro and Me, 2018, “Part of the mix, but no silver bullet” MetroAndMeDigiFinal.pdf (iwa.wales)
[58] BBC Wales, 2016, Metro ‘not silver bullet’ for south Wales economy – BBC News
[59] Prof Calvin Jones, BBC Wales, 2016 South Wales Metro impact on Valleys ‘could take decades’ – BBC News
[60] Mark Barry (for Bevan Foundation , 2016)Wider Impacts of South Wales Metro
[61] David Adamson, Lorena Axinte, Mark Land & Terry Marsden, Routledge, 2022, “Sustainable Places: Addressing Social Inequality and Environmental Crisis”
[62] Cem Ozguzel, OECD Regional Development Working Paper, 2020, “Agglomeration economies in Great Britain”
Paul Swinney, Centre for Cities, 2021 “What does agglomeration mean in British cities?”
Daniel Graham, Imperial College University of London (Joint Transport Research Centre) 2007, “Agglomeration Economies and Transport Investment” Agglomeration Economies and Transport Investment
[63] Williams & Haslam, Foundational Economy Research, Welsh Government, 2021 “Small Towns Big Issues”